LA NOCHE DE LOS SABELOTODOS (ZOMBIES Y LA POLÍTICA EXTERIOR SEGUNDA PARTE)

En Foreign Policy vuelven a tratar el tema de los zombies y la política exterior como ya hicieron meses atrás. En este caso el artículo es un poco más amplio pero trata básicamente las mismas cuestiones que la publicación anterior cuyo resumen es el siguiente:

There are many sources of fear in world politics .... it is striking how an unnatural problem has become one of the fastest-growing concerns in international relations..... of course, of zombies,.......

Because they (zombies) can spread across borders and threaten states and civilizations, these zombies should command the attention of scholars and policymakers.

..... If the dead begin to rise from the grave and attack the living, what thinking would -- or should -- guide the human response? How would all those theories hold up under the pressure of a zombie assault? When should humans decide that hiding and hoarding is the right idea?

....... Major universities have developed mock contingency plans for a zombie outbreak, ...... The Haitian government takes the threat seriously enough to have a law on the books to prevent outbreaks of zombiism. No great power has done the same publicly, but one can only speculate on what plans are being hatched behind closed doors.

From a public-policy perspective, ....... Zombie stories end in one of two ways -- the elimination/subjugation of all zombies, or the eradication of humanity from the face of the Earth. If popular culture is to be believed, the peaceful coexistence of ghouls and humans is but a remote possibility ...

I. The No-Drama School of Zombie Realpolitik

There are many varieties of realism, but all realists start with a common assumption: that anarchy is the overarching constraint of world politics. Anarchy does not necessarily mean chaos or disorder, but rather the absence of a centralized, legitimate authority.No matter what ardent cosmopolitans or crazed conspiracy theorists believe, there is no world government. With no monopoly on the use of force in world politics, actors must take their own "self-help" measures to ensure their continued existence.

In a world of anarchy, the only currency that matters is power -- the material capability to ward off pressure or coercion, while being able to influence others. The anarchic global structure also makes it impossible for governments to fully trust each other, forcing states to be guided solely by their own national interests. ..realism.. it is perfectly comfortable in the zombie universe.

How would the introduction of flesh-eating ghouls affect world politics? The realist answer is simple if surprising: International relations would be largely unaffected. Although some would see in a zombie invasion a new existential threat to the human condition, realists would be unimpressed by the claim that the zombies' arrival would lead to any radical change in human behavior. ........ the realpolitik of zombies is that the strong will do what they can and the weak must suffer devouring by reanimated, ravenous corpses.

Realists also predict balance-of-power politics, so wouldn't the specter of the undead create a balancing coalition of humans against ghouls? This possibility cannot be ruled out. ......States could also exploit the threat from the living dead to acquire new territory, squelch irredentist movements, settle old scores, or subdue enduring rivals. ..... ... But in the end, realists, particularly American realists, would no doubt evoke the cautionary words of U.S. President John Quincy Adams and warn against going abroad "in search of monsters to destroy."

II. Unite-to-Fight-Zombie Liberals

Like realism, there are many varieties of liberalism. All liberals nevertheless share a belief that cooperation is still possible in a world of anarchy. Liberals look at world politics as a non-zero-sum game. Working together, whether on international trade, nuclear nonproliferation, or disease prevention, can yield global public goods on a massive scale. Major actors in world politics have an incentive to realize the gains that come from long-term mutual cooperation and avoid the costs that come with mutual defection..... the liberal paradigm appears to be pretty incompatible with a zombie canon that tends more to undead apocalypses. Indeed, the tragedy of liberalism in a universe with zombies is that some of its central tenets would likely accelerate the rise of zombiism. Open borders, for instance, would surely facilitate the cross-border spread of both the undead and infected human carriers.

A second glance reveals that the liberal paradigm offers some significant analytical bite. ...... the articulation of and adherence to well-defined rules for surviving in a zombie-infested landscape.... is the need for disparate individuals to credibly commit to each other.

And what would liberals do after a ghoul invasion? Provided that the initial spread of zombies did not completely wipe out governments, the liberal expectation would be that an international counterzombie regime could make significant inroads into the problem. Given the considerable public-good benefits of wiping the undead from the face of the Earth, significant policy coordination seems a likely response. The liberal paradigm would predict an outcome that would not be perfect and would be quite vulnerable to political criticism over time ..... the system would also be expected to function well enough to ward off a total zombie apocalypse. Zombie flare-ups would no doubt take place. Quasi-permanent humanitarian counterzombie missions, perhaps under United Nations auspices, would likely be necessary in failed states. Liberals would acknowledge that the permanent eradication of flesh-eating ghouls is unlikely. The reduction of the zombie problem to one of many manageable threats, however, is quite likely. Most countries would kill most zombies most of the time.

III. Neoconservatism and the Axis of Evil Dead

The neoconservative policy response to an undead uprising would be simple and direct. ...... Neither accommodation nor recognition would be sustainable options in the face of the zombie threat. ... neocons would recommend an aggressive and militarized response to ensure human hegemony. Rather than wait for the ghouls to come to them, they would pursue offensive policy options that take the fight to the undead. A pre-emptive strike against zombies would, surely, be a war against evil itself. It is to neoconservatism's credit that this doctrine is consistent with extant work on how best to respond to the zombie menace. Indeed, one recent simulation by researchers at Canada's Carleton University and the University of Ottawa offered just such a finding: "An outbreak of zombies infecting humans is likely to be disastrous, unless extremely aggressive tactics are employed against the undead.… [A] zombie outbreak is likely to lead to the collapse of civilization, unless it is dealt with quickly."

However, other elements of neoconservatism might undercut the long-term viability of proponents' initial policy pronouncements. For example, neoconservatives frequently assume that all adversaries are part of a single axis or alliance of evil enemies. To be sure, that assumption works when confined to zombies, but it is unlikely that neoconservatives would stop there. They would inevitably lump reanimated corpses with other human threats as part of a bigger World War III against authoritarian despots and zombies -- an "Axis of Evil Dead." This would sabotage any attempt at broad-based coalition warfare, hindering military effectiveness in a Global War on Zombies (GWOZ).

IV. On Managing the Zombie Threat

This quick review of the theoretical paradigms reveals some interesting findings about the world in the age of zombies. There is some continuity across the different theories..... most approaches predict that the living dead would have an unequal effect on different governments. Powerful states would be more likely to withstand an army of flesh-eating ghouls. The plague of the undead would join the roster of threats that disproportionately affect the poorest and weakest countries..... The different international relations theories also provide a much greater variety of possible outcomes than the Hollywood zombie canon. ... The theoretical approaches presented ..... suggest that in the real world there would be a vigorous policy response to the menace of the living dead. Realism predicts an eventual live-and-let-live arrangement between the undead and everyone else. Liberals predict an imperfect but nevertheless useful counterzombie regime. Neoconservatives see the defeat of the zombie threat after a long, existential struggle. These scenarios suggest that maybe, just maybe, the zombie canon's dominant narrative of human extinction is overstated.

..... disastrous outcomes are still possible. Bureaucratic dysfunction could trigger a total collapse in state authority. Public opinion and interest-group pressure could make multilateral cooperation more difficult. A societal breakdown could also trigger a world in which the biological distinctions between humans and zombies would be immaterial -- they would both act like traditional zombies. Still, these are possible outcomes; whether they are the likely outcomes is another question altogether. ....... with careful planning and a consistent approach, the zombie threat can be managed. .......